hankyoreh

A series of tweets from US President Donald Trump regarding his decision to withdraw troops from Syria

On Dec. 20, US President Donald Trump suddenly announced the complete withdrawal of American troops from Syria. This came more than three years after ground troops were deployed there because of the Syrian civil war in 2015, during the presidency of Barack Obama. More than 2,000 American troops dispatched in northeast Syria have been supporting the rebel Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in their fight against the Islamic State (IS) extremists.

Trump reportedly made this decision in the teeth of opposition from his key foreign policy and security advisors. US Secretary of Defense James Mattis immediately announced his resignation in protest of the decision. There have also been numerous reports indicating that Trump is considering the idea of reducing US presence in Afghanistan. The Trump administration’s isolationism – which only advocates its goal of “America first” in an economic sense while abandoning the US’ role as “global policeman” – appears to be moving into high gear. Since South Korea regards its alliance with the US as a pillar of stability on the Korean Peninsula, it will have to keep an eye on how Trump’s isolationism impacts Northeast Asia.

Many are concerned that the abrupt withdrawal of US troops from Syria will upset the delicate balance of power between the US and Russia, and between Syrian government troops and the rebels, exacerbating instability across the entire Middle East. Nevertheless, we ought to note that withdrawing US troops from Syria was one of Trump’s campaign pledges.

We should not assume that the acceleration of Trump’s isolationism will necessarily work to South Korea’s disadvantage. Depending on how we play our cards, this could actually have a positive effect on efforts to advance inter-Korean arms control. In the short term, it’s certainly likely that the Trump administration’s emphasis on “economic interest” will put more pressure on South Korea to increase its share of the cost of stationing US troops on the Korean Peninsula. That’s why the South Korean government needs to take action while carefully observing the shifting trends of US foreign policy.

The withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East isn’t likely to lead immediately to the readjustment of American troops in South Korea and other parts of Northeast Asia. From the US point of view, there’s no reason to add a new variable to Korean Peninsula affairs before the North Korea-US denuclearization talks get results. But as Trump’s isolationism takes off, it will become difficult for some sectors of South Korean society to maintain their absolute taboo on discussing the question of the status of US Forces Korea. The South Korean government will need to be much more sophisticated and forward-looking in its preparations for a range of issues, including the transfer of wartime operational control, joint exercises with US troops, and adjusting its share of the cost of defense.

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]