[News analysis] US conciliatory gestures may be aimed at encouraging high-level talks

Posted on : 2018-12-22 15:50 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
North Korea’s preference for negotiating directly with Trump remains uncertain
Blue House National Security Office director Chung Eui-yong meets with US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Biegun at the Blue House on Dec. 21. (provided by the Blue House)
Blue House National Security Office director Chung Eui-yong meets with US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Biegun at the Blue House on Dec. 21. (provided by the Blue House)

During the second meeting of the working group held on Dec. 21, South Korea and the US easily reached a solution to the issue of sanctions on North Korea that could hobble inter-Korean cooperation projects. Since this followed remarks by US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Biegun suggesting that the US would allow NGOs to provide humanitarian aid to North Korea, it indicates that the US has initiated attempts to resume dialogue with North Korea. But it remains to be seen whether North Korea will respond to the US’ minor signs of sincerity.

Once the process of exempting inter-Korean cooperation projects from sanctions on North Korea is completed, work can begin on the groundbreaking ceremony for projects to modernize North Korean roads and railways and link them to the South Korean network, which is scheduled for Dec. 26, and the joint project to exhume Korean War MIA/POW remains, which is supposed to take place early next year. The question of providing Tamiflu, which was discussed during the working meeting on Friday, had been discussed during inter-Korean working-level deliberations about public health and medical care on Dec. 12.

“Quick diagnosis kits and Tamiflu medication will be provided to North Korea,” South Korea’s Unification Ministry announced.

Biegun’s actions “expand the exemptions to sanctions on North Korea in each area,” said Cho Sung-ryul, senior research fellow for the Institute for National Security Strategy.

“Previously, even getting started [with inter-Korean cooperation projects] had been difficult inside the framework of North Korean sanctions. It’s significant that the US is the party that’s breaking through the [current] impasse,” said a diplomatic source in Seoul who is familiar with North Korea-US negotiations. This source added that the US has had “a definite change of attitude.”

The US’ series of conciliatory gestures are thought to be aimed at encouraging North Korea to engage in working-level and high-level talks that would be stepping stones toward a second summit between the two countries. Another indication of this is the fact that Biegun, upon arriving at Incheon Airport on Dec. 19, underlined that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had ordered him to say that the US might allow humanitarian aid to North Korea. This can be seen as reflecting Pompeo’s desire to dispel North Korea’s “misunderstanding” about the secretary, who tends to take an uncompromising stance on the North.

Biegun says US is prepared to consider confidence-building measures

While Biegun stated that the US would not ease sanctions on North Korea, as the North has requested, he did say the US was prepared to consider confidence-building measures. Biegun also said that some of the details of the upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could be discussed during future talks between the two sides. These remarks represent a request for the North to take note of the confidence-building measures that the US is working on. But the Americans reportedly did not get into the details of this during the working group’s meeting on Friday.

The confidence-building measures that the US is considering appear to be the things that South Korean President Moon Jae-in mentioned during an interview with Fox News this past September: the end-of-war declaration, humanitarian measures, cultural exchange involving entertainers, visits by economic observers and the establishment of a liaison office in Pyongyang.

“This can be taken as meaning that an end-of-war declaration could be made [during the second North Korea-US summit],” said Koo Kab-woo, professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

But the matters that were announced on Friday are inter-Korean cooperation projects that aren’t seriously impeded by the sanctions on North Korea. Since they aren’t related to the “fundamental issues” that North Korea has continued to raise, many analysts believe they’re unlikely to create momentum for overcoming the deadlock between North Korea and the US. Furthermore, in light of North Korea’s preference for negotiating directly with Trump and the US’ declaration that it won’t be easing sanctions, it’s uncertain whether North Korea will take part in high-level talks with the US.

“What the US was talking about was either generic exceptions to sanctions or humanitarian measures [that obviously should have been pursued],” said Koh Yu-hwan, professor at Dongguk University. “We need to thoroughly understand that the North Koreans have recently been talking about proportionality [between measures taken by the US and the North] and that [the North] has made clear that it won’t compromise on its current stance.”

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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